Cash Forecasting For Cash Centers

Dr. Mark Frost
Director of Econometrics, Forecasting, & Decision Science
Carreker/Southern Methodist University

Giesecke & Devrient User Conference 2006
October 5, 2006,
11:00 a.m.
Charleston, South Carolina

Although cash is “good,” it is special from an inventory-management perspective because it is essentially a proxy variable for other goods.  Likewise, banks are special types of “warehouses” because they create the liabilities in the case of electronic money, and are the “licensed” managers and distributors in the case of cash coin.  In this presentation, you’ll hear about the peculiar challenges of forecasting, logistics, and automation within such a fiduciary-based demand chain  - globalization, digitalization, regulation, organization, randomization, and mechanization.  Within such an environment, the professional cash-manager is faced with many unknowns that are individually disturbing and collectively frightening.  Hear this spine-tingling forecasting and logistics tale, and take comfort in the many successes achieved in spite of it.

Attendees will learn:

• Common forecasting solutions used in professional cash management
• Problems and solutions of dealing with measurement error (cash supply for all banks is not precisely known)
• he critical need to think beyond forecasting/logistics (even if forecast-error were magically zero, there are many opportunities for the actual cash replenishment to be wrong)

Contact: Ann S Cave
email: ascave@checkfree.com
phone: (678) 375-4039